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三级片播放

2020作者:admin

重点一:供给端-工业生产将趋于走弱 2018年1-9月,规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%,增速较上半年回落0.3个百分点,9月单月增速跌破6%,为近年来扣除春节因素的最低值;工业企业利润累计增速降至14.7%,比上半年回落2.5个百分点

10月份制造业PMI降至荣枯线附近,创至2016年7月来新低

From supply-side -industrial production is weakening From January to September 2018, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated sizeincreased by 6.4% year-on-year and the growth rate dropped by 0.3% from the first half of the year. The monthly growth rate of September fell below 6%,which is the lowest value except the Spring Festival month. The cumulative growth rate of industrial enterprises profit level fell to 14.7%, down by 2.5%from the first half year. The manufacturing PMI of Oct is approaching to 50%, hitting a new low after July 2016.重点二:需求端-面临下滑压力 在整体稳定的大格局下,总需求增速出现下滑加速的迹象,值得特别关注

第一,名义总需求增速面临持续下滑压力

第二,11月份消费品价格和工业品价格环比负增长,面临通缩压力

第三、从总消费需求和投资需求看,消费需求延续疲弱趋势;投资需求温和增长,并且呈现结构改善

第四,货币供给增速持续下降是总需求不足的原因之一

From demand side - Facing downward pressureThere’s sign showing the growth rate of total demand is accelerating, even though the overall picture is stable, which deserves extraattention. Firstly, the nominal total demand growth rate is facing downward pressure. Secondly, consumer prices and industrial prices are moving down in November, facing deflationary pressures. Thirdly, from the perspective of total consumer demand and investment demand, trend of consumer demand remains weak; investment demand has grown moderately and structural improvements have been made. Fourthly, the continuous decline in the growth rate of money supply isone of the reasons for the inadequate aggregate demand.重点三:外贸-继续持稳 外汇储备和人民币汇率实现稳定

10月份和11月份人民币汇率出现持稳迹象,基本维持在6.9元人民币/美元左右的水平

2018年以来我国对美贸易顺差(图表1、图表2)仍在持续提升,暂未受到负面影响

今年前三季度我国对美顺差规模是2273亿美元,较去年同期增长14.8%;美国于今年7月、8月、9月正式分别对我国340亿、160亿、2000亿商品加征关税,但是我国对美贸易顺差不改从今年4月开始网络小说排行榜完本的逐月扩大的趋势

With regards to the foreign trade - continue to hold steady Foreign exchange reserves and the RMB exchange rate have been stable. In October and November,the RMB exchange rate showed signs of stabilization, basically maintaining ataround 6.9 yuan/dollar. Chinas tradesurplus with the United States has continued to increase (Table 1, Table 2)since 2018, and hasn’t been negatively impacted yet. In the first threequarters this year, China’s surplus with the US was $227.3 billion, with anincrease of 14.8% over the same period last year. The United States officially imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports with a total value of 34 billion,16 billion, and 200 billion respectively in July, August, and September this year, however, the Chinas trade surplus with the US has managed to keep expanding from April t三级片播放his year. 重点四:财政政策和金融政策 在财政政策方面,一是地方政府专项债券发行工作和财政支出进程明显提速

2018年7-9月地方政府专项债发行量达到1.24万亿元,比前几个月发行量大幅提速

二是自2018年11月1日起,调整后的货物出口退税率正式执行,这将在一定程度上缓解出口企业的经营压力

在金融政策方面,2018年10月7日央行宣布降准1个百分点,释放增量资金7500亿元

2018年10月22日,央行先后发布了两条定向支持小微和民营企业融资的政策措施

一是在现有额度的基础上再增加1500亿元的再贷款和再贴现额度,定向支持对小微、民营企业的信贷投放

二是人民银行引导设立民营企业债券融资支持工具,提高民营企业金融可及性

这些措施将有利于缓解企业的融资困难

In terms of Fiscal Policy and Financial Policy Regarding fiscal policy, first, the local government special bond issuance and the fiscal expenditure process is speeding up significantly. From July to September 2018,the issuance of local government special bonds reached 1.24 trillion yuan, representing a sharp increase on the circulation from previous months. Second, since 1stNovember, the adjusted rate of export tax refund had been officially implemented, which will alleviate the operating pressure of export enterprises on a certain level. In terms of financial policy, on October 7, 2018, the central bank announced to cut the requirement reserveratio (RRR) by one percentage point, unleashing incremental capital of 750billion Yuan. On October 22, 2018, the central bank issued two policy measures to support the financing of small enterprises and private enterprises. First, an additional 150 billion yuan of refinancing and rediscounting quotas will beadded on the basis of the existing quota. The second is to guide the establishment of private enterprise bond financing support tools, these measures will help ease the financing difficulties of enterprises. 重点五:中国EPU(经济政策不确定性指数)-情绪恐慌 根据美国3位学者(Baker、Bloom及Davis)透过统计香港报章(SCMP)内载有中国经济政策不确定性的相关字眼,编制的一个经济政策不确定性指数(EPU)显示,该指数由2018年初见122.94点超两年新低,随后指数急剧上升,显示市场对中国经济的前景变得十分忧虑

也就是说,中美贸易战第一枪打响,市场忧虑这场中美战会没完没了

而中美贸易点的常态化,它将全面增加未来中国经济增长的不确定性

China EPU (EconomicPolicy Uncertainty Index) - Emotional PanicWith the statistics reference of the Hong Kong newspaper (SCMP) containing the relevant words of Chinas economic policy uncertainty, three American scholars (Baker, Bloom, andDavis) published the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU). According to theEPU index, the index saw a new low of 122.94 points in the early 2018, and then the index rose sharply, indicating that the market has become very concerned aboutthe future of the Chinese economy. In other words, since the first shot of the Sino-US trade war started, and the market begin to worried that the Sino-US warwould be endless. The normalization of Sino-US trade points will increase the uncertainty of Chinas economic growth in the future. 三级片播放